Page 7 - CIWA Climate Resilience & Mitigation Assessment

CIWA Climate Resilience & mitigation Assessment

Background

Climate Change is an Existential
Threat to Sub-Saharan Africa
Drought can lead to adverse effects to ecological
Sub-Saharan Africa is one of the most vulnerable systems, industrial production, agriculture, and water
regions to climate change effects but only a minor availability and quality. Recent analysis from the World
contributor to global GHG emissions. Africa is already Bank shows that each moderate-to-severe drought, on
experiencing climate change impacts and includes average, reduces the gross domestic product (GDP) growth
regions that will experience the most devastating rate in SADC countries by a quarter percentage point.⁵ In
consequences of projected climate trends. Many SSA May 2024, the SADC Secretariat released a Regional
regions are warming at a faster rate than the global Humanitarian Appeal in response to the El Niño-induced
average and facing an above-average sea-level rise.² droughts. Seventeen percent of the region’s population need
food assistance and humanitarian aid. Widespread harvest
In 2022, Nigeria lost more than 600 people and farmlands failures and livestock deaths mean a shortfall in agriculture
to the worst flooding in a decade following heavy rain and production and farm incomes in a region where 70 percent
Cameroon’s release of water from Lagdo Dam. As this of people’s livelihoods depend on rain-fed agriculture.
report was being finalized, the Lagdo Dam was again
undergoing controlled releases of up to 1,000m³ per second In 2020 in the Horn of Africa, locust upsurges
that is drenching farms and threatening lives and livelihoods. occurred, where over 23 million already food-
The controlled releases are to mitigate the flooding that insecure people were living, many already affected
would occur if the carrying capacity of the Benue River by violent conflict and droughts. Intense locust
system were exceeded. outbreaks are linked to climate change and the
increased frequency of extreme weather events.⁶
Exacerbated by the El Niño weather pattern, heavy Outbreaks coincided with cyclone Mekunu from 2018,
rains and flooding have claimed hundreds of lives and and warmer weather combined with heavy rains at the
displaced 1 million people across the region, including in end of 2019. Large swarms were born at the start of
Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, and Tanzania. In Tanzania, 2020 in Ethiopia and Somalia and spread rapidly to
torrential rains wreaked havoc from January to May 2024. Kenya, Uganda, Sudan, and other countries.⁷ It was
Over those months, recurring floods transformed estimated that by the time the swarms receded in 2021,
roadways into rivers, submerged entire homes, and killed they had damaged hundreds of thousands of hectares
or injured hundreds. In addition to the impact on human of crops in Ethiopia and Kenya. Eighty-four percent of
lives, the destruction of more than 51,000 homes and farms in Puntland, Somalia were affected by desert
76,700 hectares (189,000 acres) of farmland has locusts, destroying 61 percent of fruit and vegetables.
adversely affected more than 200,000 people across the The World Bank has allocated US$500 million to
country. The lack of a well-coordinated disaster plan in support countries affected by the desert locusts.⁸
Tanzania contributes to delayed responses that ultimately
lead to a higher death toll. Those floods are a symptom of
the larger-scale devastation unfolding across East Africa
since the region’s seasonal rains began in October 2023.
Many of those countries are also grappling with severe
public health emergencies caused by the floods. In
Somalia, floods have created a breeding ground for
bacterial diseases that have in turn resulted in a surge in
cholera outbreaks across the country. In Kenya and
Tanzania, floods have caused extensive agricultural
damage, leading to economic losses and increasing the
risk of food insecurity.
Southern Africa is experiencing its worst drought in
more than a century, exacerbated by the El Niño effect
and the consequences of climate change.³ The 2023
rainy season (November-April) recorded below-average
rainfalls, heatwaves, and an overall temperature increase.
Crops and livestock suffered major losses due to the
ongoing drought and related water shortages, fueling
food insecurity and economic hardship. The Southern
Africa Development Community (SADC) estimates that
68 million people, or 17 percent of the region’s population,
need aid.⁴ Malawi, Zambia, and Zimbabwe declared a
state of disaster in 2024. The effects of the drought are
acutely felt along the Zambezi River Basin and its dam
reservoirs, whose historically low levels could hamper
hydropower operations. A refugee in Sudan. ©Claudiad / Getty

² IPCC, Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II, and III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change [Core Writing Team, H. Lee and J. Romero (eds.)]. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, pp. 35-115, doi: 10.59327/IPCC/AR6-9789291691647
³ https://www.usaid.gov/sites/default/files/2024-06/2024-06-11_USG_Southern_Africa_Regional_Drought_Fact_Sheet_1.pdf
⁴ https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/nearly-68-million-suffering-drought-southern-africa-says-regional-bloc-2024-08-17/
⁵ Zaveri et al., 2023. https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/server/api/core/bitstreams/8b8659c6-8087-46f2-907e-0d69a0a89d56/content
⁶ 2020. https://media.un.org/unifeed/en/asset/d252/d2529915 Accessed September 2024
⁷ Antoaneta Roussi 2020. https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00725-x
⁸ https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2020/05/21/world-bank-announces-500-million-to-fight-locusts-preserve-food-security-and- 05
protect-livelihoods