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View from the Field: Milly Mbuliro

Mbuliro also saw the devastation in Kisumu, near Lake Victoria, that the FFEWS, which relies on satellite-based rainfall forecasts from

spring. “People fled their homes. They went to camps. Schools were the Global Forecast System and its data on atmospheric and
abandoned. Health centers were abandoned.” Parts of the city land-soil variables, including temperatures, winds, precipitation,
around the lake were submerged for more than a month because of soil moisture, and atmospheric ozone concentration using remote

backwater effects (when water backs up or can’t flow downstream) sensing technologies.
from Lake Victoria.
The FFEWS then interprets how different parts of the Nile Basin
“When you see that, you are moved to do something. . .to warn are likely to respond to rainfall forecasts, based on such factors
people to stay away or to protect the communities,” she says. as whether the area is already saturated with water, large enough
to absorb the rain, and has vegetation or is on a slope. Finally,

The rains kept coming later that year. In Ethiopia in the fall rainy it forecasts how severe the flash flood will be and the time it is

season, Mbuliro saw deep gullies created by flash floods, splitting expected to occur. The system updates information every 24 hours,

farms in half. “People told me, ‘We are unable to access our releasing forecasts for the next 48 hours.
farmland. We lost our cattle. The water came without warning.’ ”
Before deploying the NB-FFEWS through the NB data portal,
Mbuliro’s team developed a strategy to operationalize the
The development of a life-saving system

system to fit into countries’ existing early-warning information
Flash flood early-warning systems can have a dramatic impact— dissemination channels and trained country experts on how to

saving lives, protecting health, and safeguarding livelihoods by access the system and interpret technical information.
mitigating adverse impacts of floods on agriculture and other

economic activities. A critical link in the chain from the NB-FFEWS issuing a flash-

flood forecast to communities receiving the warning is the
Before the NB-FFEWS, NBI produced seasonal forecasts, which capacity of national governments to distribute information using

have limited use because of the sudden nature of flash floods. “Now channels such as SMS messages, email, and national radio and

we can warn communities with specific information on the location, TV. But Mbuliro says it doesn’t always happen.

magnitude, and time of the expected flash flood,” Mbuliro says.
“We still have challenges,” she says. “It breaks my heart when the

To develop the system, the NELSAP-CU first worked with the NBD information does not reach the community in time. . . . I want to

and Nile Basin country experts to identify and map flash flood-prone be part of the solution to reduce economic loss and loss of lives

areas. Then Mbuliro’s team, supported by consultants, developed caused by floods. That’s what drives me.”
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