Page 100 - CIWA AR25

Annexes
A n n exe s

ANNEX 3 — Risk Analysis

Risk Description Mitigation Applied Notable Status Updates

1. Landscape‑scale disasters and global CIWA’s work to integrate climate change Water insecurity and climate change impacts
catastrophes. Significant disasters are considerations into WRM strategies and are rising in Africa. The Horn of Africa is facing
increasingly likely as a result of climate change. improve Africa’s water security holds the key flooding after five years of prolonged drought.
to countries’ climate adaptation and resilience, Southern Africa continues to face a severe
access to water and food, peace and stability, drought, which threatens water supply,
and reduction of risk of landscape-scale crop production, hydropower generation,
disasters and global catastrophes. and livelihoods. Catastrophic floods struck
Eastern Africa in 2024 and the first half of
2025, particularly in South Sudan, Somalia,
and Ethiopia. Nigeria, Sudan, and Mali were
among other SSA countries facing flooding.

2. Challenging political context. All work in CIWA has a diversified portfolio geographically In FY25, CIWA continued to face significant
international waters has an inherent risk that (projects in Horn, East, West and Central, and political challenges in Sub-Saharan Africa,
domestic or international political issues Southern Africa), in types of support (focus particularly in regions affected by FCV.
(related or unrelated to water issues) may on strengthening information, institutions, and The political situation in Eastern Africa
negatively impact the context, resulting in investments), and in types of clients (e.g., RBOs, remained tense from ongoing civil wars and
long-term delay or even failure of specific RECs, Ministries). Portfolio diversification helps humanitarian crises in Sudan and South
projects. This risk is often inherently beyond mitigate political risks at the program level. Sudan, exacerbated by severe flooding.
the scope of CIWA or the influence of partners. These conditions have continued to impede
Political economy analyses are mainstreamed project implementation efforts.
in CIWA program planning, which helps
anticipate risks, design projects that balance In West Africa, multiple military coups since
ambition and risk, and formulate mitigation 2020 contribute to political instability. This
strategies that enable implementation. instability has occasionally hindered CIWA
operations, as evidenced by the World
While CIWA does not support early response Bank’s decision to freeze disbursements in
and recovery in situations affected by FCV, it Niger from July 2023 to May 2024 because
works with many partners in fragile and conflict- of a military coup.
affected situations to reduce some of the
drivers of FCV, in particular, water insecurity. As
stated throughout the report, strengthening
water security improves livelihoods, health, and
governance, which are part of the antidote to FCV.
Overall, CIWA has an excellent track record of
providing impactful support for transboundary
WRM in FCV-affected situations, principally
through the mature and high-quality technical
and project management expertise provided
by World Bank team leaders. CIWA’s Horn of
Africa and West Africa projects are examples.
Its work to strengthen regional cooperation
builds trust and mutual understanding and helps
mitigate tensions over water management, while
its efforts to strengthen institutional capacity
improve resilience to political disruptions.

3. Insufficient basin‑wide commitment. CIWA basin engagement strategies and/or In some basins, not all countries are equally
Some countries within a basin may not have project development processes provide a active in the RBO. The most common reasons
formal membership in participating basin means to engage with stakeholders around the include weak commitment, lack of visibility
organizations, may challenge the basin design of CIWA programs. Project teams and of the benefits of robust participation,
organization’s engagement with CIWA, or CIWA leadership discuss with countries the insufficient governance capacity or instability,
may simply be opposed to multilateral water benefits of shared development and counter and a small stake in the impact of shared
resources development. the narrative that natural resource utilization WRM and development.
must be zero sum. Every CIWA project includes
significant effort in convening dialogues and The challenges to cooperative management
riparian trust building. and development in the Nile Basin continued
this FY. NCCR continued its work focusing on
CIWA encourages strong cooperative working technical assistance and emphasizing the
relationships. It develops a Basin Support Plan benefits of inclusive regional cooperation.
for all basins or regions where it has a long-term
engagement. The plan outlines CIWA’s vision for The work on the SMAB continued to
support and development, including alignment progress with concrete steps toward a
of CIWA-supported projects with the broader cooperative framework on the shared
objectives of each basin organization, potential groundwater resources.

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